Labor Forecasting for Small Restaurants and Cafés: A Spreadsheet-Free Starting Point
30 October 2026 · The Rosterly team · 4 min read
Labor forecasting for a small restaurant can be simple. Forecast each day's sales from the same weekday over the last four weeks, adjust for known events, divide by your sales per labor hour target to get the labor hours you need, and shape them into shifts. Check the forecast against actual sales every week and adjust. No software needed to start.
Big chains use forecasting systems that read POS data and weather. Small venues can get most of the benefit with a notebook and ten minutes a week. This post shows how, and when a forecasting tool is worth paying for.
Step 1: Forecast sales by day
Take the same weekday from the last four weeks and average them. For Friday:
Week
Friday sales
4 weeks ago
Friday sales: $3,100
3 weeks ago
Friday sales: $3,350
2 weeks ago
Friday sales: $3,200
Last week
Friday sales: $3,450
Average
Friday sales: $3,275
That's your starting forecast for next Friday.
Step 2: Adjust for what you know
Adjust the average for anything you know is different:
•
Events: a local festival, a game, school holidays.
•
Bookings: a large group already booked.
•
Weather: if your trade depends on it, such as outdoor seating.
•
Trend: if sales have risen steadily, lean towards the recent weeks.
•
Public holidays: compare with the same holiday last year, not a normal week.
Write down why you adjusted. Next week, you'll know whether the adjustment was right.
Step 3: Convert sales to labor hours
Use your sales per labor hour (SPLH) target: the sales your team can handle per hour worked while service stays good. Our sales per labor hour post explains how to find yours.
Labor hours needed = Forecast sales ÷ SPLH target
Then add any hours that don't depend on sales, such as prep and cleaning.
With a Friday forecast of $3,275 and a target of $65, you need about 50 labor hours, plus any fixed prep or cleaning hours.
Step 4: Split hours across the day
Daily hours aren't spread evenly. Use your sales by hour to see what share of the day falls in each block, and staff each block in proportion. Our guide to how many staff you need per shift walks through the hour-by-hour method, including minimum crew.
Step 5: Check the cost
Multiply hours by average pay, add on-costs, and divide by forecast sales:
Include employer on-costs such as payroll taxes and retirement contributions.
50 hours at an average cost of $22 an hour including on-costs is $1,100, or 33.6% of $3,275. Industry guides such as Toast commonly cite 25–35% of sales for restaurants. Our labor cost percentage guide has a calculator.
Step 6: Review every week
After the week, compare forecast with actual:
Day
Forecast
Actual
Difference
Wednesday
Forecast: $2,100
Actual: $1,950
Difference: −7%
Friday
Forecast: $3,275
Actual: $3,520
Difference: +7%
Saturday
Forecast: $4,400
Actual: $4,300
Difference: −2%
If a day is consistently out by more than about 10%, change how you forecast it. Within that range, your roster is about right.
Turn your forecast into a roster
Build shifts for each block in Rosterly, copy the week forward and compare worked hours with your forecast. 14-day free trial, no card needed.
Every Thursday, before building the week after next:
1.
Pull last week's sales by day from your till.
2.
Update the four-week average for each day.
3.
Note anything already in the diary for the target week.
4.
Adjust each day's forecast and write the reason beside it.
5.
Convert to labor hours and compare with the current roster.
6.
Move hours between days before you publish.
It takes ten minutes once it's a habit, and it catches most over- and under-staffed days before they happen.
When a forecasting tool is worth it
Simple forecasting is enough for most single venues. A dedicated tool starts to pay off when:
•
you run several sites and can't forecast each by hand
•
your POS can feed sales automatically
•
demand swings a lot with weather or events
•
labor targets are set by head office
Some restaurant platforms include this. When we checked on 17 October 2026, 7shifts listed forecasting on its Premium plan and labor cost tools on Pro. Our Rosterly vs 7shifts comparison covers when that's the better choice.
Common forecasting mistakes
•
Using last week only. One unusual week throws the forecast off; four weeks smooths it.
•
Ignoring known events. The forecast should include what's already in the diary.
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Forecasting and never checking. The weekly review is what makes it accurate.
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Forgetting fixed hours. Prep, cleaning and deliveries happen whatever the sales.
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Cutting below minimum crew. Some people must be on however quiet it is.
Where Rosterly fits
Rosterly doesn't forecast sales or connect to your POS. Use your till's reports for the sales side. What Rosterly gives you is the hours side:
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shift templates by day and location, copied forward
•
auto-fill for open shifts within a weekly hour limit you set
•
approved worked hours from the time clock, with unpaid breaks removed